Coping with uncertainty: an expedition into the field of new transport technology

Many decisions taken by mankind are rational only to a limited extent. This holds for individual travel behaviour, but also for long-range strategic decisions on transport systems or transport technology. In any decision problem, coping with uncertainty is the most critical element. The introduction of new transport technology is surrounded by uncertainty. For example, there is uncertainty about the pace and extent of adoption of new technology and there is uncertainty about the impact of new technology in terms of increased sustainability or increased efficiency. This article maps uncertainty surrounding new transport technology and identifies ways in which to deal with uncertainty in policy making. The findings will be illustrated with electric vehicles, particularly with two specific strategies to deal with uncertainty: interactive technology watching and experimentation in a market niche. The paper concludes with a discussion of success factors that influence the outcomes of such strategies.     

Marine Stingers: Review of an Under-Recognized Global Coastal Management Issue

Dangerous marine stingers (jellyfish) are an emotive issue in tropical Australia, where they are widely regarded as the number one marine health threat. However, numerous severe and fatal stings have been reported throughout the tropical and temperate seas of the world, indicating that marine stingers are a global health problem. Further, life-threatening jellyfish stings are more frequently reported globally now compared to earlier decades, possibly as a result of improved recognition and reporting, or increased spatial and/or temporal distribution or densities. As stinging incidents may also have significant financial implications (lost tourism revenues and liability settlements), and the treatment of envenomed patients comes at high cost to the taxpayer, this issue is also a management challenge. This article outlines suggested approaches, based largely on Australian experience, for dealing with this under-recognized global coastal management issue.     

寻找完美的“皇帝位”

上期讲到GPS导航系统将随改装市场的发展而变化，而这个变化是什么呢？笔者认为，像目前单纯把GPS导航地图分为PND版和车机版，是不能满足改装市场需求的，而是要“民间化”与“产业化、规模化”并存发展。为此，笔者从消费者的需求层面，归纳出3大类导航电子地图的未来发展方向：     

Efficiency of urban public transit: A meta analysis

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to provide a statistical overview of the literature on public transit efficiency performance. Second, to statistically explain the variation in efficiency findings reported in the literature. To this end, first some key concepts of efficiency analysis will be introduced, while next the different frontier methodologies that are used in the literature will be discussed. The empirical part of this paper consists of a statistical summary of the literature as well as meta-regression analyses for different samples of the literature in order to identify key determinants of technical efficiency (TE) of public transit operators. For a broad sample of observations, we found significant and consistent effects of the type of database, region and output measurement method. For the sample of non-parametric studies we found that the type of frontier assumptions also have an impact on the efficiency ratio. Further results show that there is no statistical difference in TE ratios between parametric and non-parametric studies. Finally, we found a positive univariate relationship between the number of inputs in the estimated specification and the efficiency ratio.     

Future air traffic management systems and financial decision-making constraints

The object is to identify characteristics of feasible systems for UK – and European – Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the coming decades. ATM here covers Air Traffic Control (ATC) provision plus wider issues, such as airspace design. The analytical focus is on the financial decision-making processes and constraints that will act to shape this future system. R&D work into control workload and planning based on an "ATM core concept" are proposed as likely to offer the best way forward.     

Validating the results of a route choice simulator

This paper describes the validation of a route choice simulator known as VLADIMIR (Variable Legend Assessment Device for Interactive Measurement of Individual Route choice). VLADIMIR is an interactive computer-based tool designed to study drivers’ route choice behaviour. It has been extensively used to obtain data on route choice in the presence of information sources such as Variable Message Signs or In-Car Navigation devices. The simulator uses a sequence of digitized photographs to portray a real network with junctions, links, landmarks and road signs. Subject drivers are invited to make journeys between specified origins and destinations under a range of travel scenarios, during which the simulator automatically records their route choices. This paper describes validation experiments carried out during the period Summer 1994 to Autumn 1995 and reports on the results obtained. Each experiment involved a comparison of routes selected in real life with those driven under simulated conditions in VLADIMIR. The analysis included investigation of the subjects’ own assessment of the realism of the VLADIMIR routes they had chosen, a comparison of models based on the real life routes with models based on VLADIMIR routes, and a statistical comparison of the two sets of routes. After an extensive series of data collection exercises and analyses, we have concluded that a well designed simulator is able to replicate real life route choices with a very high degree of detail and accuracy. Not only was VLADIMIR able to precisely replicate the route choices of drivers who were familiar with the network but it also appears capable of representing the kind of errors made and route choice strategies adopted by less familiar drivers. Furthermore, evidence is presented to suggest that it can accurately replicate route choice responses to roadside VMS information.     

地图商如何掘金手机GPS市场

第四十三届世界通信大会于5月在北京举行，这是IEEE旗下通信领域最具权威的学术会议首次在我国举行。在我国，车载导航近年来取得了很好的市场效益。随着技术的进步，手机＋GPS逐渐成为热点。     

Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys

This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour; i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change, especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous studies.     

An inverse model for calculation of global volume transport from wind and hydrographic data

The P-vector inverse method has been successfully used to invert the absolute velocity from hydrographic data for the extra-equatorial hemispheres, but not for the equatorial region since it is based on the geostrophic balance. A smooth interpolation scheme across the equator is developed in this study to bring together the two already known solutions (P-vectors) for the extra-equatorial hemispheres. This model contains four major components: (a) the P-vector inverse model to obtain the solutions for the two extra-equatorial hemispheres, (b) the objective method to determine the Ψ-values at individual islands, (c) the Poisson equation-solver to obtain the Π-values over the equatorial region from the volume transport vorticity equation, and (d) the Poisson equation-solver to obtain the Ψ and depth-integrated velocity field (U, V) over the globe from the Poisson Ψ-equation. The Poisson equation-solver is similar to the box model developed by Wunsch. Thus, this method combines the strength from both box and P-vector models. The calculated depth-integrated velocity and Ψ-field agree well with earlier studies.